Here's a little thought experiment:  You're watching your favorite show on your PVR equipped television set.  You press the pause button and a series of commercials start playing ... who should get the money?

OK, that's a hard one.  Here's another scenario:  You are watching the same show a week later and the original commercials are removed and new ones are put in their places.  Of course, you wouldn't notice this except that the sale dates on the department store commercial are current and you know you are watching a pre-recorded show. ... who should get the money?

One last one ... you are watching television about 3am and your EPG (electronic programming guide) says only "paid program."  Instead of the "Better Abs in a Nanosecond" that was scheduled by the broadcaster (which you have no idea was supposed to be there anyway) you are treated to a trip down memory lane with a super-targeted infomercial about the songs you loved in High School ... who should get the money?

You are probably thinking that all of these scenarios are impossible and, even if they aren't, they're illegal.  Wrong on both counts.  This is totally possible, it will start happening everywhere very, very soon and the copyright laws are a bit murky since this technology was not contemplated when they were penned.

"No problem," you say ... there are business rules and contracts in place to prevent such an egregious crime as kidnapping the airwaves.  You think?

Well that's the point of today's blog, I want to hear from you.  Send your thoughts about any or all of today's thought experiments to me at shelly@palmer.net  It's not a scientific survey by any means, you guys are all way ahead of the curve here, but I'm very interested in what you have to say.

Comments

[Etienne]

actualy, i think many advertisers are diging thoses paths : there is some kind of panic in TV arena. 3 reasons explain thoses concerns : the first is not new, it's fragmentation, second in the internet thrill, which seems to be back (excpecialy in europe), and the buzz is turning too... TV for mobile / TV to go (not HD tv) : boy, commercial companies must be working on figuring how to face those !!!! more seriously, my opinion would be to drive back revenues to currently consumed content, as ofr music ??? (after all, it is what program are made for - prepare viewers brains for the next commercial). well, i appened to lookout for patents on such subjects, and for instance VideoNetworks ltd. (distributing Homechoice) patented your second sugestion - insert commercial depending on viewing time/session.

[MegaZone]

ReplayTV used to do ads when paused. But it was early on and they just didn't have the user base to really interest advertisers. I don't see a problem in this case, the DVR vendor should be able to sell the advertising. It isn't being show in place of, or on top of, the provider's content. I don't think it is any different from ads in the DVR's UI, etc. Substituting new ads. Well, personally, I don't care. I never really watch the ads, I skip through them. Even when I do watch ads - I can't remember the last time I purchased something because of an ad I saw on TV. I buy things because I like the product - you can advertise Tropicana to me all day, I prefer Florda's Natural Grower's Style. I buy Jif, I don't care how many ads for Skippy or Peter Pan, or whatever, I see. I am far more likely to try a new product simply because I see it in the aisle when shopping and I think it looks like something worth trying. Or I may try a new product because I receive a register coupon and it is enough to get me to give it a chance. It depends on the product - I'm not going to try a different toothpaste because I like Tom's of Maine, but sure, I may try a different cleaner. Probably the only TV ads I can say have any influence on me would be ads for movies. And that's more just making me aware of new films coming out - I won't decide to see one based on the ads, I'll usually check it out online first. So if they want to update the ads - go for it. Doesn't matter to me. Actually if they could *target* the ads, maybe I'd actually watch. I'm a single male and I live alone - ads for feminine hygene products are wasted on me. As are ads for family vacations, luxury cars, etc. Even if I find an ad amusing it doesn't mean I'll buy the product - I think a number of Budweiser ads are clever and funny, but you're not going to convince me to drink that swill. If you can target ads to me for products I'm interested in, movies in genres I like - maybe I'll watch your ads and care for once. The last one I don't believe would fly due to backlash from both the consumers and the media companies. As a viewer I want my DVR to tune in what the channel is sending me. If they want to *add* channels to my lineup - say TiVo Network, whatever - with unique content I can tune in. Great! I'm all for it. But I am dead set against any DVR *substituting* content, replacing *any* show from one of my channels with their own content. I don't care if it is an informercial or not, they have an obligation to show me what the channel is broadcasting. And I can't see it standing up in court - in the same way the courts have struck down 3rd party advertisers on the web who used software to overlay their ads over the original ads included in the page. Substituting or altering the content didn't fly there, and I don't believe it will for TV.

[Etienne]

"I buy things because I like the product "... And what is your judgment based on ? luky you if you reach to have an "objective" perception of the products you consume !!! but it appears thoses stuff have some impact on what the rest of us buy !!!

[peBird]

Well, if the ad content is targeted due to subscriber and preference data owned by the PVR host, then they have a clain to some of that revenue, as does the media company that produced the content. In your thought experiments, you have created potentially higher-value ads, therefore there should be potentially additional revenue available to the parties that have helped produce the value. I say potentially, because execution is the key to avoid alienating the PVR user while providing a commercial information service. What we will need are new viewer/consumer models that take into account preference for ad substitutions, PVR viewing habits, and response rates, among other things. Tivo's experiment with fast-forward ads are baby steps in building the true value of their company - the informational link between media viewing and consumer behavior.